Global Sales of Pure Petrol and Diesel Cars Fall Below 50% for the First Time Since the 1920s

October 6 (IT Home) — According to Nikkei Asia, as the conflict in the Middle East pushed up international oil prices, pure petrol and diesel cars’ share of global new car sales fell below 50% in the first half of this year (January to June).

Sales of fuel-burning cars — excluding hybrids and other electrified models — fell 10% year on year to 20.25 million units. Their share of global new car sales dropped by 3 percentage points to 49%.

In just five years, that share has fallen sharply from 73% in 2021. This is reportedly the first time the fuel car’s market share has dropped below 50% since cars began to spread in the 1920s. The figures come from Mobility Global (formerly S&P Global Mobility) and exclude some heavy vehicles.

IT Home notes that oil prices rose sharply after the United States and Israel attacked Iran. The resulting higher petrol prices, together with concerns about fuel supply, substantially suppressed global demand for petrol cars. Sales in the Chinese market fell 26%, and in Europe they fell 13%.

Lower running costs are a major advantage of electric vehicles, and EVs have been the main beneficiaries of shrinking fuel-car demand: in the first half, EV sales rose 12% to 6.87 million units. Electric cars accounted for 17% of all new car sales, up several percentage points and above the 16% threshold usually regarded as the tipping point for mass adoption.

China accounted for half of global EV sales. However, after tax incentives were scaled back in January, domestic EV sales in China fell 3% to 3.44 million units. As the Donald Trump administration scrapped related incentives, North American EV sales also fell 15%.

The momentum for EV growth shifted to other markets. European EV sales rose 32% to 1.81 million units. According to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, in the first half, across 31 major European countries combined, half-year EV sales exceeded those of petrol-powered cars for the first time in history.

EV sales in South-East Asia surged 81% to 350,000 units, while sales in Oceania more than doubled to 110,000 units.

According to International Energy Agency data, the export business of Chinese carmakers such as Geely and BYD has expanded rapidly, and Chinese brands account for 60% of total global sales of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles. In markets outside the United States, Europe and China, 55% of the electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles sold are imported from China.

Mobility Global forecasts that by 2030, EVs will account for more than 30% of total vehicle production. By then electric cars will be dominant, overtaking hybrids and conventional internal combustion engine cars, including diesels.

Since July, the global EV market share has continued to rise. Yoshiaki Kawano, an associate director at Mobility Global, said: “Around 2024, the pace of EV adoption slowed because of subsidy cuts and other factors, and hybrid sales grew. But higher oil prices have reminded consumers of the lower running costs of electric cars, and EV sales are now growing again.”

Government policy still largely determines the pace of EV adoption. Since the United States cut subsidies and relaxed fuel-economy rules last autumn, local EV demand has fallen sharply. Carmakers such as Honda and General Motors adjusted their EV strategies accordingly and recorded large losses.

Even so, Kawano argues: “Among consumers who have already bought an EV, very few switch back to a petrol or hybrid car. As vehicle prices keep falling, the market driven by genuine consumer demand rather than subsidies is likely to keep growing.”

For Japanese carmakers that have bet on hybrids, EVs still account for a relatively limited share of their own sales. Hybrids are more fuel-efficient than ordinary petrol cars, so they have remained popular in the market even as oil prices rose. In the first half of this year, global hybrid sales rose 10% to 7.27 million units, accounting for 18% of global new car sales.