Analysis: Netanyahu's Secret UAE Visit Raises Questions, U.S.-Israel-Iran War Exacerbates Gulf Fragmentation

According to Xinhua, the Israeli Prime Minister's Office said on May 13 that Netanyahu secretly visited the UAE during Israel's large-scale military operations against Iran and claimed the visit led to a 'historic breakthrough' in Israel-UAE diplomatic relations. The UAE Foreign Ministry denied Netanyahu visited the UAE or that the UAE hosted an Israeli military delegation the same day.

The U.S.-Israel-Iran war has significantly strengthened ties between Israel and the UAE. During the war, the UAE suffered the most attacks from Iran. Israel subsequently deployed its 'Iron Dome' missile defense system and operators to the UAE. Other reports show the UAE secretly carried out attacks on Iranian energy facilities.

Yang Yulong, a special researcher at the Belt and Road Research Center of Lanzhou University, told The Paper (www.thepaper.cn) that the UAE and Israel have comprehensively strengthened bilateral cooperation in multiple fields such as strategy, defense security, technology, economy, and trade against the backdrop of the current adjustment and restructuring of the Middle East geopolitical landscape, and there is also much coordination in their foreign and regional policies.

Recently, the UAE has adopted a series of independent foreign policies. On May 1, the UAE withdrew from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the 'OPEC+' alliance. Analysts point out this indicates the country's dissatisfaction with Saudi Arabia has become public.

'In the future, structural contradictions within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) will further amplify, and the Middle East pattern will become more fragmented. The competition for leadership between Saudi Arabia and the UAE may stimulate the UAE to further seek to strengthen cooperation with peripheral countries like Israel and India, and will also intensify geopolitical competition in the Gulf region,' Yang Yulong said.

Such Disagreements Are Extremely Rare

Netanyahu said on May 13 that during his secret visit to the UAE amid the U.S.-Israel-Iran war, he met with UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed.

Netanyahu's office did not specify the time of the visit, itinerary, or the content of the talks with UAE leaders, but said the visit led to a 'historic breakthrough' in bilateral relations. Ziv Agmon, Netanyahu's former spokesperson, said on social media on May 13 that Netanyahu 'received a royal welcome in Abu Dhabi'.

According to informed sources, Netanyahu and bin Zayed held a meeting on March 26, accompanied by senior Israeli security officials. Flight tracking websites showed two business jets flew from Tel Aviv, Israel to Al Ain, UAE that day, stayed on the ground for 6 hours, and then returned to Israel.

However, the UAE Foreign Ministry denied that such a meeting took place.

The Wall Street Journal pointed out that such disagreements are extremely rare in high-level international diplomacy. This incident shows that although Israel has proven to be an important security partner for the UAE, there are still some political factors in the relationship between the two countries that need to be properly handled. Netanyahu himself is one such political factor, as his Israeli government is seen as a destabilizing factor by many Middle Eastern governments.

The timing of Israel's statement is particularly sensitive. Although a ceasefire agreement took effect in April, the UAE has still been repeatedly targeted by Iranian drone attacks. Analysts also point out that since Israel will hold elections later this year, Netanyahu's public disclosure of his visit to the UAE is likely for domestic political purposes.

The report cited analysts as saying that the UAE may want to keep the meeting low-key and continue more discreet and unpublicized coordination work. A source familiar with UAE officials revealed that the UAE was unhappy with Israel's statement and felt it embarrassed them.

Yang Yulong pointed out that Israel's disclosure of this news actually further transparentized the strategic cooperation between the two countries. 'In fact, not only have the UAE and Israel normalized diplomatic relations, but the mutual visits and interactions between their political leaders and leaders have always existed and are not a secret.'

After the signing of the Abraham Accords in September 2020, then-Israeli Prime Minister Bennett visited the UAE twice in 2021 and 2022. Former Israeli Prime Minister Lapid visited the UAE as Foreign Minister in 2021 and again as opposition leader last year. In addition, the UAE has received Israeli President Herzog multiple times. However, over the years, although Netanyahu has repeatedly planned official visits to the UAE, they have never taken place.

Yoel Guzansky, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Israel, said, 'Israel's relationship with the UAE is Israel's best relationship ever with an Arab country, but we also see that even this relationship has its limitations.' Yang Yulong pointed out that Arab public sentiment on the Palestinian issue and the UAE's political credibility in the Arab world must be considered.

Why Are the UAE and Israel Growing Closer?

Relations between the UAE and Israel were once hit by the Gaza war, but were brought closer again by the U.S.-Israel-Iran war. UAE Presidential Advisor Anwar Gargash said on March 17 that Iran's attacks on its Arab neighbors would help strengthen relations between Arab countries and Israel.

UAE authorities said Iran fired about 550 ballistic missiles and cruise missiles and more than 2,200 drones at it, even exceeding the scale of attacks on Israel. The attacks severely hit the UAE's air traffic industry, tourism, and real estate market, killed at least 10 civilians, triggered large-scale salary cuts and layoffs, and damaged the UAE's status as an international tourism and financial hub.

According to the U.S. news website Axios reported last month, to help the UAE deal with Iranian drone and missile attacks, Israel has deployed an 'Iron Dome' missile defense system and its operators on UAE territory. The Financial Times subsequently reported that Israel also delivered its 'Iron Beam' laser defense system to the UAE. U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee confirmed this deployment on May 12, saying it was 'because of the special relationship between the UAE and Israel based on the Abraham Accords.' The UAE has not denied the above news so far.

According to the Wall Street Journal on May 13, the head of Israel's Mossad, David Barnea, visited the UAE at least twice during the war to coordinate joint actions between the two countries. Israel's Public Broadcasting Corporation subsequently reported that the head of Israel's Shin Bet has also secretly visited the UAE in recent months.

'The relationship between the UAE and Israel is one of the key reasons why Iran is continuously attacking the UAE to punish it,' said Michael Stephens, a senior security advisor for the Middle East at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). 'In Iran's view, the closer the relationship between the UAE and Israel, the more reason Iran has to target the UAE.'

In 2020, the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco signed the U.S.-brokered Abraham Accords, normalizing relations with Israel. Since the signing of the agreement, Israel and the UAE have rapidly expanded military and intelligence cooperation, and Israeli weapons manufacturer Elbit Systems has established a subsidiary in the UAE.

Yang Yulong pointed out that the current cooperation trend between Israel and the UAE is not surprising. The defense security cooperation between the two countries has been ongoing for many years, even before the signing of the Abraham Accords. After the agreement was signed, there has always been tacit understanding and coordination in defense security and intelligence cooperation between the two countries. 'During this U.S.-Israel-Iran war, the UAE, as a real frontline country, received strong support from Israel, and the strategic cooperation and defense security cooperation between the two countries are already an open card.'

'Since Israel is facing its most isolated moment since its founding in 1948, Israel attaches great importance to this ally, the UAE. For the UAE, the Mohammed bin Zayed government, out of the need to maintain the UAE's regional status, absorb war shocks, and consolidate national defense security, objectively has a need for cooperation with Israel,' Yang Yulong said, but the bilateral cooperation between the two countries is still a pragmatic relationship and does not mean that the two countries are tied together.

Yang Yulong also emphasized that the deepening of cooperation between the UAE and Israel is not only the result of the U.S.-Israel-Iran war and the Iranian threat, but also the result of changes in the entire regional geopolitical landscape.

The UAE and Saudi Arabia Gradually Form Their Own Camps

Iran's strategy of dragging Gulf countries into the war has exacerbated political divisions among Gulf Arab countries while forcing countries to compete for new arrangements that can guarantee their own security.

Saudi Arabia, long regarded as the leader of the Gulf region, has taken a relatively cautious approach to Iran. According to Reuters citing informed officials on May 13, Saudi Arabia launched an attack on Iran in late March, then informed Iran of the attack, and the two countries subsequently held intensive diplomatic contacts and finally reached an understanding and eased tensions. According to statistics on Saudi Ministry of Defense statements, Iran significantly reduced direct strikes on targets within Saudi Arabia afterwards.

Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at the School of Security Studies at King's College London, pointed out that Saudi Arabia carried out the strike secretly 'to avoid publicly humiliating Iran so as not to be retaliated against by Iran.' Saudi Arabia 'has adopted a more cautious approach, preferring to clearly state through diplomatic channels of countries like Pakistan, Oman, and Qatar that it absolutely has no intention of fighting alongside Israel.'

Yang Yulong further pointed out that Saudi Arabia mainly pursues a pluralistic and balanced foreign policy, trying to maintain a balance between regional powers like Iran and Turkey, as well as between China and the United States.

This contrasts with the UAE's position. Yang Yulong said that the UAE is currently pursuing an 'UAE First' foreign policy. 'The UAE has actually realized that the collective security mechanisms of Arab countries, whether the Arab League or the GCC, have not provided any substantial help to the UAE, but Israel has provided practical support. The UAE has given up trying to use these multilateral mechanisms to safeguard its own interests and has instead chosen a more independent diplomatic strategy and security policy.'

In recent years, the UAE has continuously adjusted its foreign policy to achieve economic diversification, get rid of dependence on oil, and become a regional center for digital infrastructure, tourism, commerce, and investment. This strategy is called 'UAE 2031'.

'Against this background, in order to maintain its own diplomatic line and security interests, the UAE has adopted a line relatively similar to Israel's, which is to continue to strengthen cooperation with the United States,' Yang Yulong emphasized. The UAE's dependence on the United States is very high. 'After Saudi Arabia and Iran achieved reconciliation in 2023, the UAE still had many concerns about Iran, so it chose to strengthen security cooperation with the U.S. and Israel. In terms of development strategy and economic transformation, the UAE is very dependent on technical support provided by the United States, especially in the fields of artificial intelligence and digital transformation.'

The disagreement between Saudi Arabia and the UAE is not only reflected in the U.S.-Israel-Iran war, but the two countries also support opposing sides in multiple conflicts in Africa.

Wolfram Lacher, a senior researcher for Africa and the Middle East at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said in an analysis article that the UAE 'has become one of the most aggressive external powers in African conflicts.' 'In recent years, the UAE has successively intervened in the affairs of Libya and Ethiopia, and is currently mainly active in Sudan, Somalia, and Yemen. This is crucial to the UAE because these corridors ensure its long-term access to strategic resources and trade routes.'

Yang Yulong said that the UAE and Saudi Arabia have contradictions at the GCC level, sub-regional level, and on some important geopolitical hotspot issues. Although the UAE is a small country with a gap in hard power with Saudi Arabia, it does better than Saudi Arabia in many fields such as finance and trade. The UAE has its own diplomatic ambitions and hopes to compete with Saudi Arabia.

According to reports, the UAE demanded Pakistan immediately repay a $3.5 billion loan in late April and has begun a large-scale expulsion of Pakistani workers in the UAE. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia provided a $3 billion loan to Pakistan and also allowed an existing $5 billion loan to be deferred. Analysts pointed out that the UAE's decision reflects its growing dissatisfaction with Pakistan's policy of moving closer to Saudi Arabia.

'The regional competition between the UAE and Saudi Arabia has initially formed their own camps. Saudi Arabia seeks to strengthen cooperation with Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt, while the UAE, in order to counter the influence of Saudi Arabia and Turkey, has chosen to strengthen cooperation with countries of the I2U2 Group (a four-party group consisting of the United States, Israel, the UAE, and India),' Yang Yulong especially pointed out that in South Asia, the UAE has recently strengthened cooperation with the Modi government in India.